Nielsen, O-K., Winther, M., Mikkelsen, M.H., Gyldenkærne, S., Lyck, E., Plejdrup, M., Hoffmann, L., Thomsen, M., Fauser, P. 2008: Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007 to 2025. National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark. 211 pp. – NERI Technical Report no. 703.
Summary
This report contains a description of the models and background data used for projection of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 for Denmark. The emissions are projected to 2025 using basic scenarios, which include the estimated effects on Denmark’s greenhouse gas emissions of policies and measures implemented until April 2008 (‘with measures’ projections). For activity rates, official Danish forecasts, e.g. the latest official forecast from the Danish Energy Agency, are used to provide activity rates in the models for those sectors for which these forecasts are available. The emission factors refer to international guidelines or are country-specific and refer to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emission data from a considerable number of plants in Denmark. The projection models are based on the same structure and methodology as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.
The main sectors in the years 2008-2012 (‘2010’) are expected to be Energy Industries (39 %), Transport (25 %), Agriculture (15 %), and Other Sectors (7 %). For the latter sector the most important sources are fuel use in the residential sector and the agricultural sector (Figure S.1). GHG emissions show a decreasing trend in the projection period from 2008 to 2020 followed by a stabilisation towards 2025. In general, the emission share for the Energy Industries sector can be seen to be decreasing while the emission share for the Transport sector is increasing. The total emissions in ‘2010’ are estimated to be 66,231 ktonnes CO2 equivalents and 54,660 ktonnes in 2025, corresponding to a decrease of about 17 %. From 1990 to ‘2010’ the emissions are estimated to decrease by about 4 %.
Stationary Combustion
The GHG emissions in ‘2010’ from the main source, which is Public power (59 %), are estimated to decrease significantly in the period from 2008 to 2025, due to a partial shift in fuel use from coal to wood and municipal waste. Also, for residential combustion plants a significant decrease in emissions is seen in the projection; the emissions almost halved from 1990 to 2025. The emissions from the other sectors remain almost constant over the period, except for energy use in oil and gas extraction where emissions are projected to increase by more than 250 % from 1990 to ‘2010’ and by almost 30 % from ‘2010’ to 2025.
Industrial processes
The GHG emission from industrial processes increased during the nineties, reaching a maximum in 2000. Closure of the nitric acid/fertiliser plant in 2004 has resulted in a considerable decrease in the GHG emission and stabilisation at a level of about 1,700 ktonnes CO2 equivalents. The most significant source is cement production, which contributes with more than 85 % of the process-related GHG emissions. Most of the processes are assumed to be constant in the projection to 2025 at the same level as in 2006. Consumption of limestone and the emission of CO2 from flue gas cleaning are assumed to follow the combustion of coal and municipal solid waste (MSW) for generation of heat and power. The GHG emission from this sector will continue to be strongly dependant on the cement production in the future.
Solvents
In 2006 solvent and other product use account for 0.3 % of the total CO2 emissions. Emission projections from 2006 to 2010 are based on linear projections of 1995 – 2006 historical data and projections of four industrial sectors, namely “Auto paint and repair”, “Plastic industry”, “Graphic industry” and “Lacquer and paint industry”, comprising approximately 28 % of the total CO2 emission from solvent use in 2006. Constant emissions are assumed from 2010 to 2030. An emission reduction of 12 % is expected between 2006 and 2007 and 22 % between 2006 and 2010 (and 2030). This decrease is mainly due to the general historical trend from 1995 – 2006 influencing a wide range of solvents used in households and industrial activities. Households, construction, plastic industry, industrial mass produced products and auto paint and repair are the largest sources to the Danish VOC emissions from solvent use.
Transport
Road transport is the main source of GHG emissions in ’2010’ and emissions from this sector are expected to increase by 64 % from 1990 to 2030 due to growth in traffic. The emission shares for the remaining mobile sources are small compared with road transport, and from 1990 to 2030 the total share for these categories reduces from 31 to 21 %. For agriculture/forestry/fisheries, the emissions reduce by 7 % from 1990 to 2030. The emissions reduce from 1990 to 2006, due to smaller numbers of agricultural tractors and harvesters though with larger engines. From 2007 and onwards the emissions remain more or less constant. For industry (1A2f), the emissions increase by 21 % from 1990-2030; for this sector there is a significant emission growth from 1990-2006 (due to increased activity) followed by a slight emission reduction from 2007-2030 due to machinery gradually becoming more fuel efficient. The latter explanation is also the reason for the small emission declines for the activities residential (gardening) (1A4b) and navigation (1A3d) during the forecast period.
Fluorinated gases
Over the period considered, the sum of F-gas emissions is predicted to reach a maximum in 2007-2008 and then decrease considerably due to Danish regulation targeting the gases. HFCs are the dominant F-gases and in 2007 they contribute with 94 % of the F-gas emission.
Agriculture
From 1990 to 2006, the emission of greenhouse gases in the agricultural sector declined from 13,050 ktonnes CO2 equivalents to 9,605 ktonnes CO2 equivalents, which corresponds to a 26 % reduction. This development is expected to continue, and the emission to 2025 is expected to fall further to 8,690 ktonnes CO2 equivalents. The reduction both in the historical data and the projection is mainly explained by improved utilisation of nitrogen in manure, a significant fall in the use of fertiliser and a reduced nitrogen leaching. These are consequences of active environmental policy measures in this area. Measures in the form of technologies to reduce ammonia emissions in the stable as well as expansion of biogas production are taken into account in the projections but do not contribute to significant changes in the total greenhouse gas emission.
Waste (Landfill sites and wastewater treatment)
The total historical GHG emission from the waste sector has been slightly decreasing since 1990. The level predicted for ‘2010’ and onwards is rather stagnant compared to the latest historic year. In ‘2010’, CH4 from landfill sites is predicted to contribute with 78 % of the emission from the sector as a whole. From ‘2010’ no further decrease in the CH4 emission from landfill is foreseen; an almost constant emission level or a slight decrease is predicted. An almost constant level for CH4 emission from wastewater in the period considered is foreseen, while the N2O emission from wastewater is forecasted to slightly decrease; the contributions to the sector of these emissions in ‘2010’ being 18 and 4 % respectively.
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