Aarhus Universitets segl

No. 841: Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 to 2030

Nielsen, O-K., Winther, M., Nielsen, M., Mikkelsen, M.H., Albrektsen, R., Gyldenkærne, S., Plejdrup, M., Hoffmann, L., Thomsen, M., Hjelgaard, K. & Fauser, P., 2011: Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 to 2030. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark. 176 pp.

Summary

This report contains a description of the models, background data and projections of the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) for Denmark. The emissions are projected to 2030 using a scenario, which includes the estimated effects on Denmark’s GHG emissions of policies and measures implemented until April 2011 (‘with measures’ projections). For activity rates, official Danish forecasts, e.g. the latest official forecast from the Danish Energy Agency (DEA), are used to provide activity rates in the models for those sectors for which these forecasts are available. The emission factors refer to international guidelines or are country-specific and refer to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emission data from a considerable number of plants in Denmark. The projection models are widely based on the same structure and methodology as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.

The main sectors in the years 2008-2012 (‘2010’) are expected to be energy industries (38 %), transport (22 %), agriculture (16 %) and other sectors (11 %). For the latter sector the most important sources are fuel use in the residential sector and the agricultural sector. GHG emissions show a decreasing trend in the projection period from 2010 to 2030. In general, the emission share for the energy industries sector can be seen to be decreasing while the emission share for the Transport sector is increasing. The total emissions in ‘2010’ are estimated to be 60 351 ktonnes CO2 equivalents and 51 595 ktonnes in 2030, corresponding to a decrease of about 15 %. From 1990 to ‘2010’ the emissions are estimated to decrease by about 11 %.

Stationary combustion

Stationary combustion includes Energy industries, Manufacturing industries and construction and Other sectors. Other sectors include combustion in commercial/institutional, residential and agricultural plants. The GHG emissions in ‘2010’ from the main source, which is public power (63 %), are estimated to decrease significantly in the period from 2010 to 2030 due to a partial shift in fuel type from coal to wood and municipal waste. Also, for residential combustion plants a significant decrease in emissions is projected; the emissions decreases by 68 % from 1990 to 2030. The emissions from the other sectors remain almost constant over the period except for energy use in offshore industry (oil and gas extraction), where the emissions are projected to increase by almost 200 % from 1990 to ‘2010’ and by more than 30 % from ‘2010’ to 2030.

Fugitive emissions from fuels

The GHG emissions from the sector fugitive emissions from fuels increased in the years 1990-2000 where a maximum was reached. The emissions are estimated to decrease in the projection years 2010-2030, mainly from 2010-2015. The decreasing trend mainly owe to decreasing amounts of gas being flared at offshore installations. Further, the decrease owe to technical improvements at the raw oil terminal and thereby a large decrease in the emissions from storage of oil in tanks at the terminal and to less degree from onshore loading of ships. Emissions from extraction of oil and gas are estimated to decrease in the period 2010-2030 due to a decreasing oil and natural gas production. The GHG emissions from the remaining sources show no or only minor changes in the projection period 2010-2030.

Industrial processes

The GHG emission from industrial processes increased during the nine-ties, reaching a maximum in 2000. Closure of the nitric acid/fertiliser plant in 2004 has resulted in a considerable decrease in the GHG emission. The most significant source is cement production, which contributes with 82 % of the process-related GHG emission in ‘2010’. Consumption of limestone and the emission of CO2 from flue gas cleaning are assumed to follow the consumption of coal and MSW for generation of heat and power. The GHG emission from this sector will continue to be strongly dependent on the cement production at Denmark’s one cement plant.

Solvents and other product use

In 2009 solvent and other product use account for 0.2 % of the total GHG emission. The major sources of GHG emissions are N2O from the use of anaesthesia and indirect CO2 emissions from other use of solvents, which covers e.g. use of solvents in households. The CO2 emission from use of solvents is expected to decrease in the projection timeframe.

Transport and other mobile sources

Road transport is the main source of GHG emissions in ’2010’ and emissions from this sector are expected to increase by 33 % from 1990 to 2030 due to a forecasted growth in traffic. The emission shares for the remaining mobile sources are small compared with road transport, and from 1990 to 2030 the total share for these categories reduces from 32 % to 25 %. For industry, the emissions decrease by 35 % from 1990-2030. For this sector there is a significant emission growth from 1990-2009 (due to increased activity), followed by a decline in the level of GHG emissions from 2010 onwards, due to gradually more fuel efficient machinery. For agricul-ture/fishing and navigation the projected emission in 2030 is almost the same as the 1990 emission.

Fluorinated gases

In the timeframe of this project, the total f-gas emission has a maximum in 2008-2009 and hereafter it decreases due to legislative requirements. HFCs are dominant f-gases, which in 2010 are expected to contribute with 91 % of the f-gas emission.

Agriculture

From 1990 to 2009, the emission of GHGs in the agricultural sector has decreased from 12 384 ktonnes CO2 equivalents to 9 606 ktonnes CO2 equivalents, which corresponds to a 22 % reduction. This development continues and the emission to 2030 is expected to decrease further to 8 801 ktonnes CO2 equivalents. The reduction both in the historical data and the projection can mainly be explained by improved utilisation of nitrogen in manure and a significant reduction in the use of fertiliser and a lower emission from N-leaching. These are consequences of an active environmental policy in this area. Measures in the form of technologies to reduce ammonia emissions in stables and expansion of biogas production are taken into account in the projections.

Waste

The total historical GHG emission from the waste sector has been slightly decreasing since 1990. The level predicted for 2010 and onwards is decreasing compared to the latest historic year. In ‘2010’, CH4 from landfill sites is predicted to contribute with 78 % of the emission from the sector as a whole. From 2010 further decrease in the CH4 emission from landfill is foreseen due to less waste being deposited on landfills and the nature of the first order decay model used to calculate emissions. An almost constant level for both the CH4 and N2O emission from wastewater in the period considered is foreseen; the contribution to the sector of emissions from wastewater handling in ‘2010’ being 11 %. The category waste incineration & other waste contributes with 11 % of the total GHG emission from the waste sector in ‘2010’. The emission is expected to increase due to increasing use of composting as a mean of waste disposal.

LULUCF

The overall picture of the LULUCF sector is a net source of 3 155 Gg CO2 eqv. in 1990. In 2009 it was turned into a net sink of 1 118 Gg CO2 eqv. In the future it is expected that the whole LULUCF sector will be a net source of 1 500 Gg CO2 eqv. in 2015 and increasing to 1 800 Gg CO2 eqv. per year in 2019. Until 2030 a further increase is expected. The major reason for this increase is that emissions from agricultural soils is simulated with a temperature dependent model, which take into account the expected increased global warming. Afforestation is expected to continue to take place in Denmark with an estimated rate of 1 900 hectare per year. Together with a very small deforestation rate, the C-stock in the Danish forest is expected to increase in the future. Cultivation of organic soils is a major steady source of approx. 1 300 Gg CO2 eqv. per year. Agricultural regulations will reduce the area with cultivated agricultural organic soils further in the future, but still there will be a large net emission from these soils.