Nielsen, O-K., Winther, M., Mikkelsen, M.H., Gyldenkærne, S., Lyck, E., Plejdrup, M., Hoffmann, L., Thomsen, M., Hjelgaard, K. & Fauser, P., 2010: Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2009 to 2030.National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University. 143 pp. – NERI Technical Report No. 793.
This report contains a description of the models, background data and projections of the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) for Denmark. The emissions are projected to 2030 using a scenario, which includes the estimated effects on Denmark’s GHG emissions of policies and measures implemented until April 2010 (‘with measures’ projections). For activity rates, official Danish forecasts, e.g. the latest official forecast from the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) are used to provide activity rates in the models for those sectors for which these forecasts are available. The emission factors refer to international guidelines or are country-specific and refer to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emission data from a considerable number of plants in Denmark. The projection models are based on the same structure and methodology as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.
The main sectors in the years 2008-2012 (‘2010’) are predicted to be Energy Industries (36 %), Transport (22 %), Agriculture (17 %), and Other Sectors (11 %). For Other Sectors the most important source is fuel use in the residential sector (Figure S.1). GHG emissions show a decreasing trend in the projection period from 2009 to 2030. In general, the emission share for the Energy Industries sector can be seen to be decreasing while the emission share for the Transport sector is increasing. The total emissions in ‘2010’ are estimated to be 59 843 ktonnes CO2 equivalents and 53 978 ktonnes in 2030, corresponding to a decrease of about 10 %. From 1990 to ‘2010’ the emissions are estimated to decrease by about 13 %.
Figure S.1 Total GHG emissions in CO2 equivalents. Distribution according to main sectors (‘2010’) and time-series for 1990 to 2025 (see NERI Technical Report No. 793).
The GHG emissions in ‘2010’ from the main source, which is public power generation (60 %), are estimated to decrease significantly in the period from 2008 to 2030 due to partial shift in fuel type from coal to wood and municipal waste. Also, for residential combustion plants a significant decrease in emissions is seen; the emissions decreases by 60 % from 1990 to 2030. The emissions from the other sectors remain almost constant over the period except for energy use in offshore industry (oil and gas extraction), where the emissions are projected to increase by almost 200 % from 1990 to ‘2010’ and by more than 20 % from ‘2010’ to 2030.
The GHG emission from industrial processes increased during the 1990s reaching a maximum in 2000. Closure of the nitric acid/fertiliser plant in 2004 has resulted in a considerable decrease in the GHG emission and stabilisation at a level of about 1,500 ktonnes CO2 equivalents. The most significant source is cement production, which contributes with 87 % of the process-related GHG emission. Most of the processes are assumed to be constant at the same level as in 2008. Consumption of limestone and the emission of CO2 from flue gas cleaning are assumed to follow the consumption of coal and MSW for generation of heat and power. The GHG emission from this sector will continue to be strongly dependent on cement production.
The projection for solvents has not been updated since 2008, therefore the projected emissions are not totally consistent with the latest historical data.
In 2006 solvent and other product use account for 0.3 % of the total CO2 emissions. Emission projections from 2006 to 2010 are based on linear projections of 1995 – 2006 historical data and projections of four industrial sectors, namely “Auto paint and repair”, “Plastic industry”, “Graphic industry” and “Lacquer and paint industry”, comprising approximately 27 % of the total GHG emission from solvent and other product use in ‘2010’. Constant emissions are assumed from 2010 to 2030. Households, construction, plastic industry, industrial mass produced products and auto paint and repair and are the largest sources to the Danish Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) emissions from solvent use.
Road transport is the main source of GHG emissions in ’2010’ and emissions from this sector are expected to increase by 43 % from 1990 to 2030 due to growth in traffic. The emission shares for the remaining mobile sources are small compared with road transport, and from 1990 to 2030 the total share for these categories reduces from 31 % to 25 %. For agriculture/forestry/fisheries the emissions increase by 13 % from 1990 to 2030. For this sector, the emissions reduce from 1990 to 2005 due to smaller numbers of agricultural tractors and harvesters though with larger engines. For industry (1A2f), the emissions increase by 35 % from 1990-2030. For this sector there is a significant emission growth from 1990-2008 (due to increased activity), followed by an almost constant level of GHG emissions from 2008 onwards, due to gradually more fuel efficient machinery, which outbalances a small increase in activity in terms of emission impact.
In the timeframe of this project, the total f-gas emission has a maximum in 2008-2009 and hereafter it decreases due to legislative requirements. HFCs are dominant f-gases, which in ‘2010’ are expected to contribute with 92 % of the f-gas emission.
The projection of emissions from agriculture has not been updated in connection with this project.
From 1990 to 2008, the emission of GHGs in the agricultural sector has declined from 13,109 ktonnes CO2 equivalents to 10,025 ktonnes CO2 equivalents, which corresponds to a 24 % reduction. This development continues and the emission is expected to fall further to 9,363 ktonnes CO2 equivalents in 2030. The reduction both in the historical data and the projection can mainly be explained by improved utilisation of nitrogen in manure and a significant fall in the use of fertiliser and a lower emission from N-leaching. These are consequences of an active environmental policy in this area. Measures in the form of technologies to reduce ammonia emissions in the stable and expansion of biogas production are taken into account in the projections but do not contribute to significant changes in the total GHG emission.
The total historical GHG emission from the waste sector has been slightly decreasing since 1990. The level predicted for ‘2010’ and onwards is rather stagnant compared to the latest historic year. In ‘2010’, CH4 from landfill sites is predicted to contribute with 85 % of the emission from the sector as a whole. From ‘2010’ no further decrease in the CH4 emission from landfill is foreseen; an almost constant emission level is predicted. An almost constant level for CH4 emission from wastewater in the period considered is foreseen, while the N2O emission from wastewater is forecasted to slightly increase; the contributions to the sector of these emissions in ‘2010’ being 12 %.
Full report in PDF-format (3,76 MB).
