Nielsen, O.-K., Lyck, E., Mikkelsen, M.H., Hoffmann, L., Gyldenkærne, S., Winther, M., Nielsen, M., Fauser, P., Thomsen, M., Plejdrup, M.S., Albrektsen, R., Hjelgaard, K., Johannsen, V.K., Vesterdal, L., Rasmussen, E., Arfaoui, K. & Baunbæk, L. 2010: Denmark’s National Inventory Report 2010. Emission Inventories 1990-2008 - Submitted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University. 1178 pp. – NERI Technical Report No 784.
inventories and climate change
This report is Denmark’s National Inventory Report (NIR) 2010 for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change and the Kyoto Protocol, due April 15, 2010. The report has been updated since the emission inventories were updated and resubmitted to UNFCCC within the six weeks limit from April 15, 2010, i.e. May 27, 2010. The report contains detailed information about Denmark’s inventories for all years from 1990 to 2008. The structure of the report is in accordance with the UNFCCC guidelines on reporting and review. The main difference between Denmark’s NIR 2010 report to the European Commission, due March 15, 2010, and this report to UNFCCC is reporting of territories. The NIR 2010 to the EU Commission was for Denmark, while this NIR 2010 to UNFCCC is for Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands. The suggested outline provided by the UNFCCC secretariat has been followed to include the necessary information under the Kyoto Protocol. The report includes detailed and complete information on the inventories for all years from year 1990 to the year 2008, in order to ensure transparency.
The annual emission inventories for the years from 1990 to 2008 are reported in the Common Reporting Format (CRF). Within this submission separate CRF’s are available for Denmark (EU), Greenland, the Faroe Islands, for Denmark and Greenland (KP) as well as for Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands (UN Climate Convention). The CRF spreadsheets contain data on emissions, activity data and implied emission factors for each year. Emission trends are given for each greenhouse gas and for total greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 equivalents.
The issues addressed in this report are: Trends in greenhouse gas emissions, description of each emission category of the CRF, uncertainty estimates, explanations on recalculations, planned improvements and procedure for quality assurance and control.
This report itself does not contain the full set of CRF tables. Only the trend tables, Tables 10.1-5 of the CRF format for Denmark, are included, refer to Annex 8. The full set of CRF tables is available at the EIONET, Central Data Repository, kept by the European Environmental Agency:
http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/dk/Air_Emission_Inventories
Please note that figures in Annex 8 are in the Danish notation, which is “,” (comma) for decimal sign and “.” (full stop) to divide thousands. In the report (except where tables are taken from the CRF as “pictures” as in Annex 9) English notation is used: “.” (full stop) for decimal sign and mostly space for division of thousands. The English notation for division of thousand as “,” (comma) is mostly not used due to the risk of being misinterpreted by Danish readers.
On behalf of the Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of Climate and Energy NERI is responsible for the calculation and reporting of the Danish national emission inventory to EU and the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and UNECE CLRTAP (Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution) conventions. Hence, the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), University of Aarhus, prepares and publishes the annual submission for Denmark to the EU and UNFCCC of the National Inventory Report and the GHG inventories in the Common Reporting Format, in accordance with the UNFCCC guidelines. Further, NERI is responsible for reporting the national inventory for the Kingdom of Denmark to the UNFCCC. NERI is also the body designated with overall responsibility for the national inventory under the Kyoto Protocol for Greenland and Denmark. Furthermore, NERI participates when reporting issues are discussed in the regime of UNFCCC and EU (Monitoring Mechanism).
The work concerning the annual greenhouse gas emission inventory is carried out in cooperation with Danish ministries, research institutes, organisations and companies. The Government of Greenland is responsible for finalising and transferring the inventory for Greenland to NERI. The Faroe Islands Environmental Agency is responsible for finalising and transferring the inventory for the Faroe Islands to NERI.
The greenhouse gases reported are those under the UN Climate Convention:
The global warming potential (GWP) for various greenhouse gases has been defined as the warming effect over a given time of a given weight of a specific substance relative to the same weight of CO2. The purpose of this measure is to be able to compare and integrate the effects of the individual greenhouse gases on the global climate. Typical lifetimes in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases are very different, e.g. approximately 12 and 120 years for CH4 and N2O, respectively. So the time perspective clearly plays a decisive role. The lifetime chosen is typically 100 years. The effect of the various greenhouse gases can then be converted into the equivalent quantity of CO2, i.e. the quantity of CO2 giving the same effect in absorbing solar radiation. According to the IPCC and their Second Assessment Report, which UNFCCC has decided to use as reference, the global warming potentials for a 100-year time horizon are:
Based on weight and a 100-year period, CH4 is thus 21 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2 and N2O is 310 times more powerful than CO2. Some of the other greenhouse gases (hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride) have considerably higher global warming potentials. For example, sulphur hexafluoride has a global warming potential of 23 900. The values for global warming potential used in this report are those prescribed by UNFCCC. The indirect greenhouse gases reported are Nitrogenoxide (NOx), Carbonmonooxide (CO), Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound (NMVOC) and Sulphurdioxid (SO2). Since no GWP is assigned these gases they do not contribute to GHG emissions in CO2-equivalents.
Summary ES.2.-4. is the inventory for Denmark only. The inventories for Greenland, Denmark and Greenland and the Faroe islands are described in Annex 9, 10 and 11, respectively.
The greenhouse gas emissions are estimated according to the IPCC guidelines and guidance and are aggregated into seven main sectors. According to decisions made under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol the greenhouse gas emissions are estimated according to IPCC 1996 guidelines and IPCC 2000 good practice guidance. The greenhouse gases include CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6. Figure ES.1 shows the estimated total greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 equivalents from 1990 to 2008. The emissions are not corrected for electricity trade or temperature variations. CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas contributing in 2008 to national total emission in CO2 equiv. excluding LULUCF (Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry) with 79.5 %, followed by N2O with 10.5 %, CH4 8.6 % and F-gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) with 1.4 %. Seen over the time span from 1990 to 2008 these contributions (in percentages) have been increasing for CO2 and F-gases, almost constant for CH4 and decreasing for N2O. Stationary combustion plants, transport and agriculture represent the largest emission categories, followed by Industrial processes, Waste and Solvents, see Figure ES.1. The net CO2 emission for the LULUCF sector in 2008 is 2.2 % of the total emission in CO2 equivalents (including LULUCF). The National total greenhouse gas emission in CO2 equivalents excluding LULUCF has decreased by 7.4 % from 1990 to 2008 and decreased 4.0 % including LULUCF. Comments on the overall trends on the individual greenhouse gases etc. seen in Figure ES.1 are given in the sections below.
Net removals from Afforestation Reforestation Deforestation (ARD) activities in 2008 were 33.9 Gg CO2 eqv., hereof 0.4 Gg CO2 eqv. owe to N2O emissions from disturbance of soils. Net emissions from FM activity were 293.2 Gg CO2 eqv. (Table ES.1) hereof 8.6 Gg CO2 eqv. owe to N2O emissions from drainage of soils.
For Cropland Management (CM) the net emissions in 2008 were 863.5 Gg CO2 eqv. compared to a net emission in 1990 of 3 471.8 Gg CO2 eqv.
For Grassland Management (GM) the net emission in 2008 was 81.7 Gg CO2 eqv. compared to a net emission in 1990 of 95.7 Gg CO2 eqv.
Table ES.1 Emissions and removals in 2008 for activities relating to Article 3.3 and Article 3.4
| Net CO2 | CH4 | N2O | Net CO2 equivalent |
(Gg) | ||||
A. Article 3.3 activities |
|
|
| -33.92 |
A.1. Afforestation and Reforestation | -69.81 | NA | IE,NA | -69.81 |
A.1.1. Units of land not harvested since the beginning of the commitment period | -69.81 | NA | IE,NA | -69.81 |
A.1.2. Units of land harvested since the beginning of the commitment period | IE,NA | NA | IE,NA | IE,NA |
A.2. Deforestation | 35.48 | NA | 0.00 | 35.89 |
B. Article 3.4 activities |
|
|
| 1,238.45 |
B.1. Forest Management | 281.02 | NA | 0.04 | 293.24 |
B.2. Cropland Management | 863.52 | NO | NO,NR | 863.52 |
B.3. Grazing Land Management | 81.69 | NO | NO | 81.69 |
B.4. Revegetation | NA | NA | NA | NA |
estimates and trends
The largest source of the emission of CO2 is the energy sector, which includes the combustion of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas. Energy excluding transport contributes in 2008 with 57 % of the national total CO2 emissions (excl. LULUCF). The transport sector accounts for approximately 22 %. The CO2 emission from the energy sector including transport decreased by approximately 6 % from 2007 to 2008. The relatively large fluctuations in the emission time-series from 1990 to 2008 are due to inter-country electricity trade. Thus, high emissions in 1991, 1994, 1996, 2003 and 2006 reflect electricity export and the low emissions in 1990 and 2005 were due to import of electricity in these years. The low emission in 2008 is due to a decrease in the energy demand due to the economic recession. The minor increasing emission of CH4 is due to increasing use of gas engines in the decentralised cogeneration plants. The deregulation of the electricity market has made production of electricity in gas engines less favourable, therefore the fuel consumption has decreased and hence the CH4 emission has decreased. The CO2 emission from the transport sector has increased by 31 % since 1990, mainly due to increasing road traffic.
The emissions from industrial processes, i.e. emissions from processes other than fuel combustion, amount to 3.5 % of total emissions in CO2-equivalents (excl. LULUCF). The main categories are cement production, refrigeration, foam blowing and calcination of limestone. The CO2 emission from cement production – which is the largest source contributing with about 2.1 % of the national total – increased by 31 % from 1990 to 2008. The second largest source has been N2O from the production of nitric acid. However, the production of nitric acid/fertiliser ceased in 2004 and therefore the emission of N2O also ceased.
The emission of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 has increased by 176 % from 1995 until 2008, largely due to the increasing emission of HFCs. The use of HFCs, and especially HFC-134a, has increased several fold so HFCs have become the dominant F-gases, contributing 67 % to the F-gas total in 1995, rising to 95 % in 2008. HFC-134a is mainly used as a refrigerant. However, the use of HFC-134a is now stabilising. This is due to Danish legislation, which in 2007, banned new HFC-based refrigerant stationary systems. However, in contrast to this trend is the increasing use of air conditioning systems in mobile systems.
The use of solvents in industries and households contribute 0.1 % of the total greenhouse gas emissions in CO2-equivalents. There is a 52 % decrease in CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2008. N2O comprises in 2007 30 % of the total CO2-equivalent emissions for solvent use.
The agricultural sector contributes with 15.6 % of the total greenhouse gas emission in CO2-equivalents (excl LULUCF) and is one of the most important sectors regarding the emissions of N2O and CH4. In 2008 the contributions to the total emissions of N2O and CH4 were 91 % and 70 %, respectively. The main reason for the decrease of 31 % in the emission of N2O from 1990 to 2008 is a legislative demand for an improved utilisation of nitrogen in manure. This result in less nitrogen excreted pr livestock unit produced and a considerable reduction in the use of fertilisers. From 1990 to 2008, the emission of CH4 from enteric fermentation has decreased due to decreasing numbers of cattle. However, the emission from manure management has increased due to changes in stable management systems towards an increase in slurry-based systems. Altogether, the emission of CH4 for the agricultural sector has decreased by 6 % from 1990 to 2008.
The LULUCF sector alters between being a net sink and a net source of GHG. In 2008 LULUCF was a net source with 2.2 % of the total GHG emission including LULUCF. In 2007 LULUCF was a net source equivalent to 1.3 % of the total GHG emission (including LULUCF). In 2008 Forest Land, Cropland, Grassland and Settlements was net sources contributing with 442.15 Gg CO2-eqv., 836.92 Gg CO2-eqv., 140.45 Gg CO2-eqv. and 51.77 Gg CO2-eqv., respectively. In the same year Wetlands was a net sink contributing with 7.15 Gg CO2-eqv. The emission from Croplands is mainly due to emissions from organic soils. Since 1990 there has been a decrease in the total C-stock in soil. Despite the global warming it seems that this decrease has stabilized so that it is possible to maintain the current C stock level in soil.
The waste sector contributes in 2008 with 1.9 % of the national total. The trend of emission from 1990 to 2008 is decreasing by 2.4 %. The sector is dominated by CH4 emission from solid waste disposal contributing 85.0 % to the sector total in 2008. This emission has decreased by 2.5 % from 1990 to 2008. This decrease is due to the increasing incineration of waste for power and heat production. Since all incinerated waste is used for power and heat production, the emissions are included in the 1A IPCC category.
The CH4 and N2O emissions from wastewater handling contribute to the sectoral total with 3.8 and 8.4 %, respectively. For the wastewater handling the CH4 emissions has an increasing trend while N2O are at the same level as in 1990. Waste incineration without energy recovery contributes in 2008 with 2.6 % to the sectoral total; the trend of these emissions is slightly increasing from 1990 to 2008.
In 2008 the activities under Article 3.3 was a net sink of 34 Gg CO2-eqv. and the activities under Article 3.4 was a net source of 1238 Gg CO2-eqv. A short overview of KP-LULUCF is given in Chapter ES.2.2 and a more detailed description is given in Chapter 11.
A plan for Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) in greenhouse gas emission inventories is included in the report. The plan is in accordance with the guidelines provided by the UNFCCC (Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and Guidelines for National Systems). ISO 9000 standards are also used as an important input for the plan.
The plan comprises a framework for documenting and reporting emissions in a way that emphasis transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness and accuracy. To fulfil these high criteria, the data structure describes the pathway, from the collection of raw data to data compilation and modelling and finally reporting.
As part of the Quality Assurance (QA) activities, emission inventory sector reports are being prepared and sent for review to national experts, not involved in the inventory development. To date, the reviews have been completed for the stationary combustion plants sector, the transport sector and the agricultural sector. In order to evaluate the Danish emission inventories, a project where emission levels and emission factors are compared with those in other countries has been conducted.
The Danish greenhouse gas emission inventories include all sources identified by the revised IPPC guidelines except the following:
Agriculture: The CH4 conversion factor in relation to the enteric fermentation for poultry and fur farming is not estimated. There is no default value recommended by the IPCC. However, this emission is seen as non-significant compared with the total emission from enteric fermentation.
Please see annex 5 for more information.
The main improvements of the inventories are:
The documentation for the emission inventory has been significantly expanded to include all elements of a regular NIR. A full CRF for Greenland and the Faroe Islands and the appropriate aggregations hereof with the CRF for Denmark has been worket out. Additionally many sectors that have not previously been estimated are included for the first time. For a thorough documentation of the emission inventory for Greenland please refer to Annex 9.
At the request of the ERT a tier 1 uncertainty estimate has been made for the aggregated submission of Denmark and Greenland. A trend discussion and a key category analysis have also been performed. Please refer to Annex 10 for more information.
Update of fuel rates according to the latest energy statistics. The update included the years 1980-2007. The most changes were for the years 2006 and 2007.
The split of the CO2 emission factor for municipal waste between biomass and fossil fuel have been recalculated. This has led to an increased fossil CO2 emission from waste incineration for the whole time-series.
Improved emission factors for decentralised CHP plants referring to a Danish emission measurement program (Nielsen et al. 2010) have been implemented. This has affected emissions of CH4 and N2O from several plant types.
The total mileage per vehicle category from 2005-2008 have been updated based on the traffic index development (derived from traffic counts on selected roads) from the Danish Road Directorate. In addition new data prepared by Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Transport) for the Danish Infrastructure Commission has given information of the total mileage driven by foreign trucks on Danish roads. This mileage contribution has been added to the total mileage for Danish trucks on Danish roads, for trucks > 16 tonnes of gross vehicle weight. The data from DTU Transport was estimated for 2005, and by using appropriate assumptions the mileage have been backcasted to 1985 and forecasted to 2008.
For passenger cars the new division of total mileage into gasoline and diesel made by the Danish Road Directorate is regarded as very broad. Hence in the subsequent model calculations, the fuel and emission results for diesel passenger cars are adjusted with the overall sales/calculated fuel ratio, being applied to the estimates for the other diesel vehicle categories as well. This is a change compared to previous year’s inventory submissions for which the diesel passenger car results remain unadjusted.
Emission factors derived from the new road transport simulations have caused some emission changes from 1985-2007. The minimum and maximum emission differences (min %, max %) for the different emission components are: CH4 (0 %, 4 %) and N2O (0 %, 2 %).
En error for 2007 has been corrected. Erroneously, the flights between Denmark and Greenland/Faroe Islands were treated as international flights. As a result of this correction the fuel consumption and emissions change substantially. The fuel consumption and CO2 emission increases are 51%, whereas CH4 and N2O emissions increase by 22 % and 26 %, respectively.
Very small emission changes between 0 % and 2 % occur for the years 2001-2006, due to inclusion of new representative aircraft types.
Emissions from distribution of town gas have been included in the emission inventory for the years 1985-2008. The input data are sparse as more of the distribution companies have been closed down. Only in the cities of Copenhagen and Aalborg town gas is still being distributed. Another two distribution companies are included in the inventory. Those were closed in 2004 and 2006, respectively. To complete the time-series interpolation and extrapolation has been used on basis of the available data. The uncertainties are expected to be large both regarding the distribution for years without data, the distribution loss and the gas composition.
The emission factors for flaring in refineries have been updated. The emission factors for NMVOC and CH4 are based on new information on the fuel gas composition from one of the two Danish refineries. The same emission factors are adopted for the second Danish refinery. Emission factors from the EMEP/EEA guidebook (2009) are used to calculate emissions of NOx, CO and N2O. CO2 emission factors are based on data from the ETS reports for 2006-2008 and the calorific values for fuel gas for one refinery. For SO2 the TIER 1 emission factors for stationary combustion from the EMEP/EEA guidebook (2009) are used.
The emission of CO2 from production of cement has been revised for the years 1998-2005 based on new information from the company.
For yellow bricks and expanded clay products the CO2 emission has been adapted from the company reports to EU-ETS as the emission factors calculated previously and used until 2005 were found not to be in line with the actual emission.
In the category “2F4 Aerosols/Metered Dose Inhalers” metered dose inhalers have been included for 2008 and the emissions has also been recalculated for 1998 - 2007.
An improved and more detailed source allocation method has been implemented, which enables emission calculation on SNAP sub-category level.
A new method – a Tier 2/CS methodology - for the calculation of CH4 from manure management has been implemented by using national values of manure conditions. The consequences of the recalculations shows increases in the years 1990 - 2007 from 16 % to 1 % given in CO2-equivalents with a falling tendency.
Calculations of nitrogen loss from manure have been adjusted to TAN therefore recalculations have been made. Furthermore an error in the database calculations of N2O has been corrected. These changes decrease the emission of N2O from manure management in the years 1990-2005 up to 4 % in CO2-equivalents, and increase emission in 2006 by 1 % and in 2007 decrease emission by 14 %.
New data for the number of animals and the distribution on stable types have been implemented. As recommended by the expert review team (ERT) the amount of feed and N ab animal for heifers have been interpolated in the years 2005-2006 to even out high differences. Also for dairy cattle, piglets and slaughter pigs the amount of feed has been interpolated for the amounts of cattle in 2006 and piglets and slaughter pigs in 1991-1993. Three new categories of animals are included, deer, pheasants and ostriches. New data for the use of sewage sludge as fertilizers for the years 2002, 2005 and 2007 have been implemented.
Field burning of agricultural wastes have been included and it effects the total emission by less than 1 % for all compounds.
A full matrice for Land Use Change has been implemented for all years.
Based on mapped forest area in 1990 and in 2005 a recalculation of carbon stored in both forest remaining forest and in afforestation since 1990 have been performed. The forest areas in 1990 as well as in 2005 have been mapped to be larger than previously estimated for the times. The recalculation of carbon stock in 1990 and in 2000 used age distribution as reported in census 1990 and in 2000 as an expression of the total forest land allocation to species and ages. Based on the actual measurements of carbon storage in different species and age classes with the current National Forest Inventory (NFI), the total standing carbon stock was calculated. For each of the years 1990 - 2000 calculated a standing carbon stock as a moving average, corrected for the deforestation which was detected. Wind throws and the effects of these are included in the overall estimation of changes in carbon stock.
For Cropland and Grassland the amount of living biomass has now been included for to estimate the change in C when land use change occurs. These were previously not estimated (NE). As a consequence a recalculation has been made for all years.
Previously the annual estimate from soils was based on a five-year average to avoid very large inter-annual fluctuations in the inventory. The ERT has recommended Denmark to use the estimated real annual emission in the inventory. This has been included. This leads to much higher variability between years due to differences in crop yield and climatic conditions.
Previous were also imported peat included in the Danish inventory. From this submission is only CO2 emissions from Danish peat included. Previous were avoided CH4 emission from the drainage of land where peat extraction takes place included. This has been removed from the inventory based on a recommendation from the ERT.
A recalculation has been made due to new area data on the established wetlands has been obtained. Furthermore the availability of the remote sensing data has made it possible to locate the exact position in relation to permanent wetlands.
The DOC content of Plastics has been changed from 85 to 0 %. This was an error in the previous model formulation. This change lowered the time-series of emissions from 9.5 (1990) to 13.1 % (2002) as compared to the 2009 submission.
The content of CH4 in the gas emitted has been changed from 45 to 50 % to better reflect the GPG values. This change increased the time-series of emissions from 11.2 (1990) to 13.4 % (1998) as compared to the 2009 submission.
The half year time has been changes from 10 to 14 years according to the default value in the GPG. This change lowered the time-series of emissions from 15.0 (1990) to 4.2 % (2007) as compared to the 2009 submission.
The model formulation has been changed to reflect the accepted fact that emission from waste deposited starts after some time delay. The model now starts to estimate emissions from waste deposited January 1, the year after the waste was deposited. This change lowered the time-series of emissions from 11.9 (1990) to 6.4 % (2007) as compared to the 2009 submission.
The methane emission from wastewater treatment has been significantly reduced as a result of improved documentation of the biogas production, and i.e. methane recovery, in Denmark obtained by access to the Danish Sludge Database.
As recommended by the ERT, a first attempt for the derivation of a national N2O emission factor for waste water treatment has been performed.
Emissions from incineration of corpses and carcasses and emissions from accidental fires are included in the inventory for the first time.
For the national total CO2 equivalent emissions without LULUCF the general impact of the improvements and recalculations performed is small and the changes for the whole time-series are between -0.20 % (1990) and +0.86 % (2006). Therefore, the implications of the recalculations on the level and on the trend, 1990-2007, of this national total are small, refer to Chapter 10, Table 10.1.
For the national total CO2 equivalent emissions with LULUCF, the general impact of the recalculations is larger due to recalculations in the LULUCF sector. The changes vary between –6.3 % (1993) and +12.2 % (2006).
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