Illerup, J.B, Nielsen, O-K., Winther, M., Mikkelsen, M.H., Lyck, E., Nielsen, M., Hoffmann, L., Gyldenkærne, S. & Thomsen, M. 2007 . 116 pp. - Technical Report from NERI no. 611
This report contains a description of the models and background data used for projection of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Denmark</st1:place></st1:country-region> . The emissions are projected to 2030 using basic scenarios which include the estimated effects on Denmark’s greenhouse gas emissions of policies and measures implemented until October 2006 (‘with measures’ projections). For activity rates, official Danish forecasts, e.g. the latest official forecast from the Danish Energy Authority, are used to provide activity rates in the models for those sectors for which these forecasts are available. The emission factors refer to international guidelines or are country-specific and refer to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emission data from a considerable number of plants in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Denmark</st1:place></st1:country-region> . The projection models are based on the same structure and methodology as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.
The main sectors in the years 2008-2012 (‘2010’) are expected to be Energy Industries (39%), Transport (21%), Agriculture (14%), and Other Sectors (10%). For the latter sector the most important sources are fuel use in the residential sector and the agricultural sector (Figure S.1). GHG emissions show a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2030 and, in general, the emission share for the Energy Industries sector can be seen to be decreasing while the emission share for the Transport sector is increasing. The total emissions in ‘2010’ are estimated to be 67,800 ktonnes CO2 equivalents and 60,386 ktonnes in 2030, corresponding to a decrease of about 10 %. From 1990 to ‘2010’ the emissions are estimated to decrease by about 2%.
Figure S.1 Total GHG emissions in CO2 equivalents. Distribution according to main sectors in ‘2010’ (2008-2012) and time-series for 1990 to 2030.
The GHG emissions in ‘2010’ from the main source, which is Public power (57%), are estimated to decrease significantly in the period from 2006 to 2030, due to a partial shift in fuel use from coal to wood and municipal waste. Also, for residential combustion plants a significant decrease in emissions is seen in the projection; the emissions almost halve from 1990 to 2030. The emissions from the other sectors remain almost constant over the period, except for energy use in oil and gas extraction where emissions are projected to increase by more than 300% from 1990 to ‘2010’ and by almost 60% from ‘2010’ to 2030.
The GHG emission from industrial processes increased during the nineties, reaching a maximum in 2000. Closure of the nitric acid/fertiliser plant in 2004 has resulted in a considerable decrease in the GHG emission and stabilisation at a level about 1,750 ktonnes CO2 equivalents. The most significant source is cement production, which contributes with more than 80% of the process-related GHG emissions. Most of the processes are assumed to be constant in the projection to 2030 at the same level as in 2004. Consumption of limestone and the emission of CO2 from flue gas cleaning are assumed to follow the consumption of coal and MSW for generation of heat and power. The GHG emission from this sector will continue to be strongly dependant on cement production also in the future.
Road transport is the main source of GHG emissions in ’2010’ and emissions from this sector are expected to increase by 59% from 1990 to 2030 due to growth in traffic. The emission shares for the remaining mobile sources are small compared with road transport, and from 1990 to 2030 the total share for these categories reduces from 32 to 20%. For agriculture/forestry/fisheries emissions reduce by 27% during the same period due to smaller numbers of agricultural tractors and harvesters though with larger engines. For industry (1A2f), the emissions increase by 4% from 1990-2030; for this sector there is an emission growth from 1990-2005 (due to increased activity), followed by a slight emission reduction from 2005-2030 due to machinery gradually becoming more fuel efficient. The latter explanation is also the reason for the small emission declines for the activities residential (gardening) (1A4b) and navigation (1A3d) during the forecast period.
Over the period considered, the sum of F-gas emissions is predicted to reach a maximum in ‘2010’ and then decrease considerably due to Danish regulation targeting the gases. HFCs are the dominant F-gases, and in ‘2010’ they are expected to contribute with 78% of the F-gas emission.
From 1990 to 2004, the emission of greenhouse gases in the agricultural sector declined from 13,050 ktonnes CO2 equivalents to 10,000 ktonnes CO2 equivalents, which corresponds to a 23% reduction. This development is expected to continue, and the emission to 2030 is expected to fall further to 8,690 ktonnes CO2 equivalents. The reduction both in the historical data and the projection can mainly be explained by improved utilisation of nitrogen in manure, a significant fall in the use of fertiliser and a reduced nitrogen leaching. These are consequences of active environmental policy measures in this area. Measures in the form of technologies to reduce ammonia emissions in the stable as well as expansion of biogas production are taken into account in the projections but do not contribute to significant changes in the total greenhouse gas emission.
The total historical GHG emission from the waste sector has been decreasing since 1990, and this is predicted to continue until ‘2010’. This is mainly due to the decrease in the amount of waste deposited and, in turn, a decrease in the CH4 emission from landfill. In ‘2010’, CH4 from landfill sites is predicted to contribute with 78% of the emission from the sector as a whole. From ‘2010’ no further decrease in the CH4 emission from landfill is foreseen; an almost constant emission level or a slight decrease is predicted. A minor increase in the CH4 emission from wastewater in the period considered is foreseen, while the N2O emission from wastewater is forecasted to remain almost constant. This results in a minor increase in GHG for the sector as a whole after ‘2010’.
Full report in pdf-format (1,750 kB).
