Illerup, J.B., Nielsen, O-K., Winther, M., Mikkelsen, M.H., Nielsen, M., Fauser, P. & Gyldenkærne, S. 2008: Projection of SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and particle emissions - 2005 to 2030. National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus. 121 pp. – NERI Technical Report no. 655
Summary
Introduction
This report contains a description of the models and background data used for projection of the pollutants SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3, TSP, PM10 og PM2.5 for Denmark. The emissions are projected to 2030 using basic scenarios which include the estimated effects on emissions of policies and measures implemented until June 2006 (‘with measures’ projections). For activity rates, official Danish forecasts, e.g. the official forecast from the Danish Energy Authority, are used to provide activity rates in the models for those sectors for which these forecasts are available. The emission factors refer to international guidelines or are country-specific, referring to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emissions data from a considerable number of plants in Denmark. The projection models are based on the same structure and methodology as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.
In Europe regional air pollution is regulated by a number of protocols under the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). The objectives of the new protocol – the Gothenburg Protocol – are to control and reduce the emissions of SO2, NOX, NMVOC og NH3. Contrary to the earlier protocols the parties to the convention are not obliged to comply with certain reduction percentages set in relation to a baseline year. Instead emission ceilings have been based on knowledge of critical loads and environmental impact on ecosystems within the geographical area of Europe. Table 1 shows the emission ceilings for Denmark in 2010. The same emission ceilings are given in the EU directive: Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2001 on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants.
Table 1. Emission ceilings for Denmark in 2010 (tonnes)
| Pollutants | SO2 | NOX | NMVOC | NH3* |
| Emission ceilings | 55,000 | 127,000 | 85,000 | 69,000 |
* The NH3 emission ceiling excludes the emission from straw treatment and crops.
Pollutant summary
NOX
The projected NOX emission of 135.8 ktonnes in 2010 is somewhat higher than the emission ceiling of 127 ktonnes. The three largest sources are transport (mainly road transport), energy industries and other mobile sources.
SO2
The Danish SO2 emission ceiling of 55 ktonnes in 2010 will be achieved according to the projection, which estimates the emission in 2010 to 20 ktonnes, approximately 64 % less than the emission ceiling. The largest source of the emission of SO2 is energy industries, accounting for 43 % of the SO2 emission in 2010.
NMVOC
The projected NMVOC emission of 88.1 ktonnes is somewhat higher than the emission ceiling of 85 ktonnes. The largest emission sources of NMVOC are use of solvents, transport, non-industrial combustion plants (mainly wood combustion in residential plants), other mobile sources and offshore activities.
NH3
The projected emission in 2010 is estimated to be 65.5 ktonnes (excluding emissions from crops), compared with the emission ceilings of 69 ktonnes. This means that the Danish NH3 emission is expected to be 5 % below the emission ceiling in 2010. Almost all emissions of NH3 result from agricultural activities and the major part comes from livestock manure.
TSP
Particles are not included under the NEC directive, so no emission ceilings are established for TSP, PM10 or PM2.5. The main sources of particle emission are agriculture and non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants. These two sources are approximately the same size and account for 85 % of the total TSP emission in 2010.
PM10
The main sources of the PM10 emission are non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants, and agriculture. They account for 48 % and 34 % respectively
PM2.5
The main source by far of the PM2.5 emission is non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants, which accounts for 67 % of the total PM2.5 emission in 2010. The other most important sectors are transport and agriculture.
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