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No. 81: Projection of SO2, NOx, NMVOC, NH3 and particle emissions - 2012-2035

Nielsen, O.-K., Plejdrup, M., Hjelgaard, K., Nielsen, M., Winther, M., Mikkelsen, M.H., Albrektsen, R., Fauser, P., Hoffmann, L. & Gyldenkærne, S. 2013. Projection of SO2, NOx, NMVOC, NH3 and particle emissions - 2012-2035. Aarhus University, DCE – Danish Centre for Environment and Energy, 151 pp. Technical Report from DCE – Danish Centre for Environment and Energy No. 81. http://dce2.au.dk/pub/SR81.pdf

Summary

Introduction

This report contains a description of the models and background data used for the emission projection of the pollutants sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), ammonia (NH3), total suspended particulates (TSP), particulate matter with diameter less than 10 µm (PM10) and particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) for Denmark. The emissions are projected to 2035 using basic scenarios which include the estimated effects on emissions of policies and measures implemented until August 2012 (‘with measures’ projections). Official Danish projections, e.g. the official energy projection from the Danish Energy Agency, are used to provide activity rates in the models for those sectors for which these projections are available. The emission factors refer to international guidelines or are country-specific, referring to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emission data from a considerable number of plants in Denmark. The projection models are based on the same structure and methodology as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.

In Europe, regional air pollution is regulated by a number of protocols under the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). The objectives of the Gothenburg Protocol are to control and reduce the emissions of SO2, NOX, NMVOC and NH3. In addition to the UN regulation there is also EU legislation addressing the emissions of air pollution (National Emission Ceiling Directive – NECD).

In 2012 the Gothenburg Protocol was amended to establish emission reduction commitments for 2020 and beyond. Furthermore, reduction commitments for particulate matter (PM2.5) were introduced for the first time. In the amended Gothenburg Protocol, the reduction commitments are given as a percentage reduction compared to the emission level in 2005. The emission ceilings for Denmark in 2010 according to the Gothenburg Protocol are shown in Table S.1 together with the reduction percentages for 2020 recalculated to a “ceiling” value.

Pollutant summary

The historical emissions in the latest historical year, 2011, are shown in Table S.2 together with the projected emissions for 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035. The results of the projection indicate, that emissions of SO2, NOx, NMVOC, NH3 and particulate matter decrease from the latest historical inventory year (2011) to the projection year 2020. From 2020 to 2035 the projection indicates a further decrease of emissions of the same pollutants, except SO2, which is expected to show a slight increase. 

Nitrogen oxides, NOX

The largest sources are road transport, other mobile sources, and energy industries, accounting for 37 %, 34 % and 19 % of the NOx emission in 2011, respectively.

The NOx emission is expected to decrease 34 % (45 %) from 2011 to 2020 (2030). The decrease is mainly related to road transport and other mobile sources due to the introduction of stricter demands at EU level (new EURO norms).

The projected emission in 2020 is higher than the emission target based on the reduction commitment referenced in Table S.1. Part of the explanation is that the EU regulation of emissions from road transport has not delivered the expected reductions in emission levels.

Sulphur dioxide, SO2

The largest sources of SO2 emissions are manufacturing industries and energy industries, accounting for 24 % and 23 %, respectively, of the national SO2 emission in 2011.

The SO2 emission is expected to decrease 12 % (11 %) from 2011 to 2020 (2030). The emissions from other mobile sources and manufacturing industries are expected to show a marked decrease, while emissions from combustion in public power and district heating plants are expected to increase.

Non methane volatile organic compounds, NMVOC

The largest sources to emissions of NMVOC are solvents and other product use followed by residential plants, road transport, extraction, storage and refining of oil and gas, and industrial processes in food and drinks production. These sources account for 33 %, 16 %, 15 %, 11 % and 6 %, respectively, of the total NMVOC emission in 2011.

The NMVOC emission is expected to decrease 16 % (20 %) from 2011 to 2020 (2030). The largest decrease is expected for residential plants and solvent and other product use, but pronounced decreases are also expected for road transport, fugitive emissions from fuels and other mobile sources. The emissions from industrial processes are on the other hand expected to increase.

Ammonia, NH3

The predominant source of NH3 emissions is agricultural activities (96 %) and the main source is livestock manure.

The NH3 emission is expected to decrease 5 % (13 %) from 2011 to 2020 (2030). The major decrease is expected from manure management (5 % and 15 %, respectively). The decreased emission is mainly a result of a reduction in emission from the animal housing and in particular from the pig housing, which is due to implementation of NH3 reducing technology.

The projected emission in 2020 is higher than the emission target based on the reduction commitment referenced in Table S.1. The emission estimate included in both Table S.1 and Table S.2 includes NH3 emissions from crops (approx. 5 000 tonnes) that are not considered under the NECD.

Total suspended particulate matter, TSP

The main sources of particle emission are non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants and agriculture, accounting for 44 % and 31 %, respectively, of the total TSP emission in 2011.

The emission is projected to decrease by 16 % (20 %) from 2011 to 2020 (2030). The largest decrease is expected for emissions from residential plants of 34 % and 49 % from 2011 to respectively 2020 and 2030.

Particulate matter with diameter less than 10 µm - PM10

The main sources of the PM10 emission are non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants, and agriculture. In 2011 these sources accounted for 54 % and 20 %, respectively.

The emission projection estimates the PM10 emission to decrease by 21 % (28 %) from 2011 to 2020 (2030). The main decrease is expected for residential plants, but the PM10 emissions from road transport and other mobile sources are expected to decrease in the projection period as well.

Particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm - PM2.5

The single major source of the PM2.5 emission is non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants, which accounted for 67 % of the national PM2.5 emission in 2011. Other important sources are road transport, other mobile sources and agriculture with 10 %, 9 % and 6 %, respectively

The PM2.5 emission is expected to decrease by 28 % (38 %) from 2011 to 2020 (2030) mainly due to a decreasing emission from residential plants caused by the introduction of new technologies with lower emissions and other mobile sources. The emission from agriculture is expected to increase.