Gyldenkærne, S. & Mikkelsen, M.H. 2007: Projection of the Ammonia Emission from <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Denmark</st1:place></st1:country-region> from 2005 until 2025. Research Notes from NERI, 43pp.

 

Summary

 

Emission of ammonia to the atmosphere is responsible for acidification of soil and water and increased eutrophication in natural habitats. Approximately 97% of the emission is related to animal husbandry, primarily in the agricultural sector, but also includes private horse ownership as well as use of fertiliser, incl. sludge and the emission from crops. The remaining 3% is from the industry and from transport. In the inventories previously reported, the Danish ammonia emission showed reduction from 109,900 tonnes NH₃-N/year to 80,400 tonnes NH₃-N/year from 1990 to 2004. This decrease was primarily due to an increased utilisation of nitrogen in animal feedstuffs, as well as a reduced number of cattle and changed manure application techniques.

 

Denmark has ratified the 1999 protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone under Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution and accepted the target to reduce the emission to 56,800 tonnes NH₃-N by 2010. The same obligation is contained in the EU-Directive on National Emission Ceilings (2001/81/EC). This ceiling includes all sources except the emission from crops and ammonia-treated straw.

 

The emission to 2025 is projected in this report. Due to new research carried out in Denmark, e.g. in connection with the Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment III (VMPIII) research programme, a revision of the current ammonia inventory model is required. The current model over-estimated especially the emission from manure application.

 

A new inventory model for ammonia will be developed in 2007. For the purpose of this projection a preliminary model has therefore been developed and the results are assumed to be close to the outcome of the final model. In the existing model, for example, the total Nitrogen (N) content in manure is used to estimate the ammonia emission. The new model will be TAN based (Total Ammoniacal Nitrogen). Total ammoniacal nitrogen is the part of nitrogen that is volatile. This change is required in order to implement the foreseen effect of new ammonia-reducing technologies in the inventory methodology.

 

In the projection, developments in animal husbandry, stable types, manure application methods, ammonia-reducing technologies and investment in biogas plants are all taken into account. Implementation is primarily based on expectations relating to the effect of a new animal husbandry law, which is in force by January 1, 2007 (Law No. 1572 – December 20, 2006). However, there is a high degree of uncertainty included in the projection, as it is difficult to estimate which technologies will be used, to what extend and where. The effect of manure burning is not included in the projection. Burning of the solid fraction of manure from cattle and pigs is expected to have very little effect on the ammonia emission, whereas burning of poultry litter may have a greater effect.

 

The new projection estimates that the current ammonia inventory over-estimates the emission by approximately 5,300 tonnes NH₃-N/year in 2004. The main reason is an over-estimation of manure application during spring.

 

The developed model estimates an emission of 72,200 tonnes NH₃-N/year in 2005, which represents a reduction of 35% since 1990. In 2010 an emission of 64,700 tonnes/year is expected. Up until 2025, a further reduction to 53,200 tonnes/year is expected. These figures include the emission from growing crops.

 

Emissions that are included in the National Emission Ceiling are estimated to 53,600 tonnes in 2010. Consequently, Denmark is expected to fulfil its reduction commitments for ammonia. The main reasons behind this are improved feed utilisation, a further reduction in the number of cattle, increased manure injection and investment in new ammonia-reducing technologies in stables and manure storage.

 

The Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme has worked out a policy emission scenario - the thematic strategy scenario 2020 (Amann et al. 2005), as a basis for outlining a strategy towards cleaner air in Europe, including revision of the NEC Directive. Analysis of the thematic strategy scenario 2020 suggests a Danish ammonia emission ceiling for 2020 to 51,000 tonnes NH₃-N. The current Danish projected emission for 2020 is estimated to 44,800 tonnes NH₃ and is thus below the value in the Thematic Strategy scenario. However, it has to be pointed out that negotiations concerning the emission ceiling 2020 is presently taking place. The final proposal for the Danish emission ceiling 2020 is therefore still unknown.

 

Table A Projected ammonia emission from 1990 to 2025 calculated with the preliminary emission model, tonnes NH₃-N/year.

	1990	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025
Animal manure	80,400	60,700	53,800	46,700	40,400	38,300	36,400
Fertilisers	8,700	5,600	4,500	4,300	4,000	3,900	3,700
Crops	13,000	11,500	11,400	11,100	10,900	10,700	10,500
Ammonia-treated straw	8,400	2,000	0	0	0	0	0
Sludge	100	100	100	100	100	0	0
Field burning	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Industry	400	500	500	500	500	500	500
Transport	100	1,800	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000
Total	111,100	82,100	72,200	64,700	57,900	55,400	53,200
Relative development	100	74	65	58	52	50	48
According to the NEC directive	89,700	68,600	60,800	53,600	47,000	44,800	42,700
NEC (National Emission Ceiling)				56,800		51,000

 

Full report in pdf format   (414 kB)