Winther, M. 2007. 204 pp.
This report explains the road transport and other mobile sources, which are part of the annual Danish emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and the UNECE LRTAP (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Long Range Transboundary Pollution) conventions. The sub-sectors for other mobile sources are military, railways, navigation, fisheries, civil aviation and non-road machinery in agriculture, forestry, industry and household/gardening.
The emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOX, NMVOC, CO, particulate matter (PM), heavy metals, dioxins and PAH are shown in a 1985-2004 time-series grouped according to the UNFCCC Common Reporting Format (CRF) classification codes.
|
Mobile sources |
CRF codes |
|
Road transport |
1A3b Transport-Road |
|
Military |
1A5 Other |
|
Railways |
1A3c Railways |
|
Inland waterways |
1A3d Transport-Navigation |
|
National sea traffic |
1A3d Transport-Navigation |
|
National fishing |
1A4c Agriculture/forestry/fisheries |
|
International sea traffic |
1A3d Transport-Navigation (international) |
|
Dom. airport traffic (LTO < 1,000 m) |
1A3a Transport-Civil aviation |
|
Int. airport traffic (LTO < 1,000 m) |
1A3a Transport-Civil aviation (international) |
|
Dom. cruise traffic (> 1,000 m) |
1A3a Transport-Civil aviation |
|
Int. cruise traffic (> 1,000 m) |
1A3a Transport-Civil aviation (international) |
|
Agriculture |
1A4c Agriculture/forestry/fisheries |
|
Forestry |
1A4c Agriculture/forestry/fisheries |
|
Industry |
1A2f Industry-Other |
|
Household and gardening |
1A4b Residential |
The emission calculations for road transport are made with a model developed by NERI, using the European COPERT III (COmputer Programme to calculate the Emissions from Road Transport) methodology. In COPERT III the emissions are calculated for operationally hot engines, during cold start and fuel evaporation. The model also includes the emission effect of catalyst wear. Input data for vehicle stock and mileage is obtained from the Danish Road Directorate, and is grouped according to average fuel consumption and emission behaviour. The emissions are estimated by combining vehicle and annual mileage numbers with hot emission factors, cold:hot ratios and evaporation factors (detailed methodology).
For air traffic the 2001-2004 estimates are made on a city-pair level, using flight data from the Danish Civil Aviation Agency (CAA-DK) and LTO and distance related emission factors from the EMEP/CORINAIR (European Evaluation and Monitoring Programme/CORe INventory on AIR emissions) guidelines (detailed methodology). For previous years the background data consist of LTO/aircraft type statistics from <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Copenhagen</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Airport</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> and total LTO numbers from CAA-DK. With appropriate assumptions a consistent time-series of emissions is produced back to 1985 using also the findings from a Danish city-pair emission inventory in 1998.
Non-road working machines and equipment, and recreational craft are grouped in the following sectors: Agriculture, Forestry, Industry, Household/Gardening and Inland Waterways. In general the emissions are calculated by combining information on the number of different machine types and their respective load factors, engine sizes, annual working hours and emission factors (detailed methodology).
Fuel use data are obtained from the Danish energy statistics provided by the Danish Energy Authority. For road transport and aviation the emission results are adjusted in a fuel balance to ensure that all statistical fuel sold is accounted for in the calculations. For military, railways and navigation the emissions are calculated as the product of fuel use and emission factors.
Set in relation to the Danish national emission totals, the largest emission shares for road transport are noted for CO, NOX, NMVOC, CO2 PM2.5, PM10 and TSP. In 2004 the emission percentages were 38, 33, 23, 22, 18, 15 and 13, respectively. The emissions of N2O, NH3, SO2 and CH4 have marginal shares of 5, 2, 2 and 1%, respectively.
From 1985 to 2004 there has been an emission decrease of 35, 58, 34 and 66% for particulates (exhaust only: Size is below PM2.5), CO, NOX and NMVOC. In the same period the CO2 (and fuel use), CH4 and N2O emissions have increased by 48, 8 and 301% (30% for CO2, 3% for CH4 and 237% for N2O since 1990).
The most significant emission changes from 1985 to 2004 occur for SO2 and NH3. For SO2 the emission drop is 97% (due to reduced sulphur content in the diesel fuel), whereas the NH3 emissions increase by 3850% (due to the introduction of catalyst cars).
The highest particulate, NOX and NMVOC emissions occur in 1991, after which the emissions drop by 45, 43 and 67%, until 2004.
1) Exhaust only
Road transport exhaust PM emissions almost solely come from diesel fuelled vehicles. The largest sources are light duty trucks followed by heavy-duty vehicles and passenger cars in decreasing order. Since the mid-1990s the emissions from light and heavy duty vehicles have decreased significantly due to gradually stricter Euro emission standards. For diesel passenger cars, the environmental benefit of introducing new engines with lower particulate emissions since 1990 is more or less compensated by an increase in vehicle new sales in the later years.
The trend in non-exhaust PM follows the traffic growth in general, and in 2004 the TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 shares were 43, 33 and 21% of the respective road traffic totals. The non-exhaust PM is gaining more relative importance, in pace with the year by year reductions of exhaust PM.
Historically the emission totals of NOX and especially NMVOC and CO have been dominated by the contributions coming from gasoline passenger cars. However, the emissions from this vehicle type have been reduced since the introduction of catalyst cars in 1990. A negative side effect of this technology though is the increase in N2O and NH3 emissions. The NOX, NMVOC and CO emissions reductions are fortified by the introduction of new gradually stricter Euro emission standards for all other vehicle classes.
For other mobile sources the emissions of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">NOX</st1:City> , <st1:State w:st="on">CO</st1:State></st1:place> , SO2, PM2.5, NMVOC, PM10 and TSP have the largest shares of the national totals in 2004. The shares are 25, 24, 15, 13, 13 10 and 7%, respectively. The 2004 CO2 emission (and fuel use) share is 7%, whereas the emissions of N2O, NH3 and CH4 have marginal shares of 1% or less in 2004.
The emissions of TSP, NOX and NMVOC have decreased by 46, 14 and 10% from 1985 to 2004. For CO2 (and fuel use) the decrease is 15% (and 11% from 1990), while the N2O and CH4 emission decreases are 10 and 5%, respectively. For SO2 the emission drop is 74% from 1985 to 2004 (and 77% since 1980). For CO the 1985 and 2004 emissions are the same.
The largest source of NOX and particulate emissions are agriculture/forestry/fisheries, followed by industry and navigation. For NMVOC and CO most of the emissions come from gasoline fuelled working machinery in the residential sector.
For heavy metals the development in emissions follows the fuel use trends. The road transport shares for copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), chromium (Cr) and cadmium (Cd) are 71, 16, 16 and 7% of national totals in 2004, and for other mobile sources the lead (Pb), Cu and nickel (Ni) shares are 27, 17 and 14%. For the remaining components the emission shares are less than 5%.
The road transport emissions have increased by 30% from 1990 to 2004. For Pb though there has been an almost 100% emission decline, due to the phasing out of leaded gasoline fuels until 1994. For other mobile sources many of the components have emission decreases of about 10-20% in the same time period. The emissions of Pb, Ni, Selenium (Se) and Mercury (Hg) decrease even further. The respective emission declines are 79, 54, 33 and 27%. For Ni, Se and Hg the emission decreases are due to a reduction in residual oil fuel use, and for Pb the reason for the emission drop is the contemporary phasing out of gasoline fuelled tractors and lead in gasoline fuel.
The PAH emission shares for road transport and other mobile sources are 5% or less of the national total in 2002.
For mobile sources in 2004 the CO2 emissions are determined with the highest accuracy, followed by the CH4, SO2, NMVOC, CO, NOX, PM10, PM2.5, TSP and N2O emissions with increasing levels of uncertainties. The uncertainties are 5, 7, 46, 48, 50, 52, 55, 55, 56 and 64%, respectively. The uncertainties for the 1990-2004 emission trends are 5, 7, 6, 10, 13, 8, 8, 7 and 253% for the emissions in the same consecutive order. For NH3, heavy metals and POPs the 2002 emissions have uncertainty levels of between 700 and 1000%. In this case the emission trend uncertainties are significantly lower; still large fluctuations exist between the calculated values for the different emission components. The smallest and largest uncertainties are 16 for Indeno(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene and 121 for dioxins.
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