Winther, M. Research Notes from NERI No. 201, 2004, 146 pp.
Summary
This report explains the road transport and other mobile sources part of the annual Danish emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and the UNECE LRTAP (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Long Range Transboundary Pollution) conventions. The sub-sectors for other mobile sources are Military, railways, navigation, fisheries, civil aviation and non-road machinery in agriculture, forestry, industry and household/gardening.
The emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOX, NMVOC, CO, particulate matter (PM), heavy metals, dioxins and PAH are shown in a 1985-2002 time series grouped according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes) CRF classification codes.
|
Mobile sources |
CRF codes |
|
Road transport |
1A3b Transport-Road |
|
Military |
1A5 Other |
|
Railways |
1A3c Railways |
|
Inland waterways |
1A3d Transport-Navigation |
|
National sea traffic |
1A3d Transport-Navigation |
|
National fishing |
1A4c Agriculture/forestry/fisheries |
|
International sea traffic |
1A3d Transport-Navigation (international) |
|
Dom. airport traffic (LTO < 1000 m) |
1A3a Transport-Civil aviation |
|
Int. airport traffic (LTO < 1000 m) |
1A3a Transport-Civil aviation (international) |
|
Dom. cruise traffic (> 1000 m) |
1A3a Transport-Civil aviation |
|
Int. cruise traffic (> 1000 m) |
1A3a Transport-Civil aviation (international) |
|
Agriculture |
1A4c Agriculture/forestry/fisheries |
|
Forestry |
1A4c Agriculture/forestry/fisheries |
|
Industry |
1A2f Industry-Other |
|
Household and gardening |
1A4b Residential |
Methodologies
The European COPERT III (COmputer Programme to calculate the Emissions from Road Transport) emission model is used to calculate the road transport emissions. In COPERT III the emissions are calculated for operationally hot engines, during cold start and fuel evaporation. The model also includes the emission effect of catalyst wear. Input data for vehicle stock and mileage is obtained from the Danish Road Directorate, and is grouped according to average fuel consumption and emission behaviour. The emissions are estimated by combining vehicle and annual mileage numbers with hot emission factors, cold:hot ratios and evaporation factors (detailed methodology).
For air traffic the 2001 and 2002 estimates are made on a city-pair level, using flight data from the Danish Civil Aviation Agency (CAA-DK) and LTO and distance related emission factors from the EMEP/CORINAIR (European Evaluation and Monitoring Programme/CORe INventory on AIR emissions) guidelines (detailed methodology). For previous years the background data consist of LTO/aircraft type statistics from Copenhagen Airport and total LTO numbers from CAA-DK. With appropriate assumptions a consistent time series of emissions is produced back to 1985 using also the findings from a Danish city-pair emission inventory in 1998.
Non-road working machines and equipment, and small boats and pleasure crafts are grouped in the following sectors: small boats/pleasure crafts, agriculture, forestry, industry and household and gardening. In general the emissions are calculated by combining information on the number of different machine types and their respective load factors, engine sizes, annual working hours and emission factors (detailed methodology).
Fuel use data are obtained from the Danish energy statistics provided by the Danish Energy Authority. For road transport and aviation the emission results are adjusted in a fuel balance to ensure that all statistical fuel sold is accounted for in the calculations. For military, railways and navigation the emissions are calculated as the product of fuel use and emission factors.
Emissions from road transport
Set in relation to the Danish national emission totals, the largest emission shares for road transport are noted for CO, NOX, PM (PM2.5), NMVOC and CO2. In 2002 the emission percentages were 49, 33, 30, 28 and 21, respectively. The emissions of N2O, NH3, CH4 and SO2 only have marginal shares of 5, 2, 1 and 1% in 2002.
From 1985 to 2002 there has been an emission decrease of 30, 51, 25 and 57% for PM (exhaust only), CO, NOX and NMVOC. In the same period the CO2 (and fuel use), CH4 and N2O emissions have increased with 38, 21 and 274% (22% for CO2, 15% for CH4 and 233% for N2O since 1990).
The most significant emission changes from 1985 to 2002 occur for SO2 and NH3. For SO2 the emission drop is 97% (due to reduced sulphur content in the diesel fuel), whereas the NH3 emissions increase with 3748% (due to the introduction of catalyst cars).
The highest PM2.5, CO, NOX and NMVOC emissions occur in 1991, after which the emissions drop with 40, 41, 34 and 57%, until 2002.
Emissions from road transport in 2002, changes from 1985 to 2002, and 2002 shares of national emission totals
|
CRF ID |
CO2 |
CH4 |
N2O |
SO2 |
NOx |
|
[ktons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
|
|
Road, 2002 |
11389 |
3010 |
1270 |
358 |
66749 |
|
Road non-exhaust, 2002 |
|||||
|
Total Road, 2002 |
11389 |
3010 |
1270 |
358 |
66749 |
|
Total national, 2002 |
54164 |
268320 |
25730 |
25275 |
200334 |
|
Road-% of national, 2002 |
21 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
33 |
|
Road-% change 1985-2002 |
38 |
21 |
274 |
-97 |
-25 |
|
CRF ID |
NMVOC |
CO |
NH3 |
TSP |
PM10 |
PM2.5 |
|
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
|
|
Road, 2002 |
34815 |
283912 |
2386 |
3508 |
3508 |
3508 |
|
Road non-exhaust, 2002 |
2333 |
1509 |
819 |
|||
|
Total Road, 2002 |
34815 |
283912 |
2386 |
5841 |
5017 |
4327 |
|
Total national, 2002 |
123763 |
576640 |
100916 |
33788 |
22112 |
14316 |
|
Road-% of national, 2002 |
28 |
49 |
2 |
17 |
23 |
30 |
|
Road-% change 1985-2002 |
-57 |
-51 |
3748 |
-30 |
-30 |
-30 |
Road transport exhaust PM emissions almost solely come from diesel fuelled vehicles. The largest sources are light duty vehicles followed by heavy-duty vehicles and passenger cars in decreasing order. Since the mid 1990s the emissions from light and heavy duty vehicles have decreased significantly due to gradually stricter EURO emission standards. For diesel passenger cars, the environmental benefit of introducing new engines with lower particulate emissions since 1990 is more or less compensated by an increase in vehicle new sales in the later years.
The trend in non-exhaust PM follows the traffic growth in general, and in 2002 the TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 shares were 40, 30 and 19% of the respective road traffic totals. The non-exhaust PM are gaining more relative importance, in pace with the year by year reductions of exhaust PM.
Historically the emission totals of NOX and especially NMVOC and CO have been dominated by the contributions coming from gasoline private cars. However, the emissions from this vehicle type have been reduced since the introduction of catalyst cars in 1990. A negative side effect of this technology though is the increase in N2O and NH3 emissions. The NOX, NMVOC and CO emissions reductions are fortified by the introduction of new gradually stricter EURO emission standards for all other vehicle classes.
Emissions from other mobile sources
For other mobile sources the emissions of NOX, PM2.5, NMVOC, CO, PM10, SO2 and TSP have the largest shares of the national totals in 2002. The shares are 27, 26, 19, 18, 18, 13 and 12%, respectively. The 2002 CO2 emission (and fuel use) share is 7%, whereas the emissions of N2O, NH3 and CH4 have marginal shares of 1% or less in 2002.
The emissions of NOX and PM have decreased with 15 and 13% from 1985 to 2002. For CO2 (and fuel use) the decrease is 15% (and 12% from 1990). For N2O the emission decrease is 16%, whereas the emissions of CH4 increase with 6%. For SO2 the emission drop is 74% from 1985 to 2002 (and 77% since 1980). In the same period the emissions of NMVOC and CO has increased with 32 and 6%.
Emissions from other mobile sources in 2002, changes from 1985 to 2002, and 2002 shares of national emission totals.
|
CRF ID |
CO2 |
CH4 |
N2O |
SO2 |
NOx |
|
[ktons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
|
|
Military (1A5) |
89 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
416 |
|
Railways (1A3c) |
210 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
3385 |
|
Navigation (1A3d) |
554 |
122 |
29 |
2017 |
8636 |
|
Ag./for./fish. (1A4c) |
1836 |
121 |
89 |
1151 |
31005 |
|
Civil Aviation (1A3a) |
146 |
5 |
8 |
5 |
674 |
|
Industry-Other (1A2f) |
742 |
148 |
32 |
201 |
10668 |
|
Residential (1A4b) |
82 |
130 |
2 |
3 |
239 |
|
Total other mobile, 2002 |
3659 |
539 |
170 |
3388 |
55024 |
|
Total national, 2002 |
54164 |
268320 |
25730 |
25275 |
200334 |
|
Other mobile-% of national, 2002 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
27 |
|
Other mobile -% change 1985-2002 |
-15 |
6 |
-16 |
-74 |
-15 |
|
CRF ID |
NMVOC |
CO |
NH3 |
TSP |
PM10 |
PM2.5 |
|
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
[tons] |
|
|
Military (1A5) |
55 |
317 |
0 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
|
Railways (1A3c) |
247 |
635 |
1 |
125 |
125 |
125 |
|
Navigation (1A3d) |
11374 |
20018 |
0 |
604 |
575 |
547 |
|
Ag./for./fish. (1A4c) |
5002 |
22285 |
3 |
2361 |
2244 |
2133 |
|
Civil Aviation (1A3a) |
153 |
869 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Industry-Other (1A2f) |
3052 |
10766 |
2 |
926 |
881 |
838 |
|
Residential (1A4b) |
4162 |
47601 |
0 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
|
Total other mobile, 2002 |
24046 |
102491 |
6 |
4065 |
3874 |
3693 |
|
Total national, 2002 |
123763 |
576640 |
100916 |
33788 |
22112 |
14316 |
|
Other mobile-% of national, 2002 |
19 |
18 |
6 |
12 |
18 |
26 |
|
Other mobile -% change 1985-2002 |
32 |
6 |
-12 |
-13 |
-13 |
-13 |
The other mobile sources cover different modes of transport and non-road machinery. For NOX and PM more than half of the emissions comes from agriculture/forestry/fisheries in 2002. The emission trends are composed by fuel use (and hence emissions) fluctuations for fishery, and the constant emission decrease for diesel fuelled agricultural machines. The latter emission decline is the product of decreasing fuel use between 1990 and 2000 and an improved emission performance for new machinery since the late 1990’s.
For NMVOC and CO almost half of the other mobile emissions come from the navigation and residential sectors, respectively. The major NMVOC increase is due to more gasoline fuelled private boats, while the high CO emissions for residential come from gasoline fuelled working machinery.
Heavy metals
For heavy metals the development in emissions follows the fuel use trends. The road transport shares for copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) and chromium (Cr) are 70, 15 and 11% of national totals in 2002, and for other mobile sources the lead (Pb), Cu and nickel (Ni) shares are 28, 16 and 12%. For the remaining components the emission shares are less than 5%.
The road transport emissions have increased by 22% from 1990 to 2002. For Pb though there has been a 99% emission decline, due to the phasing out of leaded gasoline fuels until 1994. For other mobile sources many of the components have emission increases of around 10-20% in the same time period. The arsenic (As) and Ni increase is around 40% due to a growth in residual oil fuel use, and for Pb the 71% increase is due to the use of aviation gasoline with a high content of lead.
PAH’s
The PAH emission shares for road transport and other mobile sources are 5% or less of the national total in 2002.
Uncertainties
For mobile sources in 2002 the CO2 emissions are determined with the most accuracy, followed by the CH4, SO2, NMVOC, NOX, N2O and TSP emissions with increasing levels of uncertainties. The uncertainties are 4, 32, 45, 46, 51, 53, 56 and 59%, respectively. The uncertainties for the 1990-2002 emission trends are 4, 4, 8, 6, 15, 7, 193 and 9% for the emissions in the same consecutive order. For NH3, heavy metals and POPs the 2002 emissions have uncertainty levels of between 700 and 1000%. In this case the emission trend uncertainties are significantly lower, still large fluctuations exist between the calculated values for the different emission components. The smallest and largest uncertainties are 8 (Benzo(b) flouranthene) and 139% (Benzo(k) flouranthene).
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