This report presents results for spatial distributed emission inventories for the Arctic area above 58.95N from 2012-2016 based on satellite AIS data, ship engine power functions and technology stratified emission factors. Emission projection results for 2020, 2030 and 2050 are also presented for a Baseline scenario and for a SECA and a HFO ban scenario. The full list of emission components estimated in the project are the short lived climate forcers SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM, BC and OC and the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O. For 2012[2013, 2014, 2015, 2016] the following total results are calculated for fuel consumption: 4.8[5.1, 6.3, 6.6, 5.4] MTonnes; SO₂: 82[84, 108, 60, 53] kTonnes; NO_x: 320[339, 429, 432, 361] kTonnes and BC: 0.71[0.73, 0.86, 0.65, 0.56] kTonnes. In the Baseline scenario for the forecast years 2020[2030, 2050] the following total results are calculated for fuel consumption: 5.7[5.8, 6.3] MTonnes; SO₂: 17[17, 18] kTonnes; NO_x: 371[318, 247] kTonnes and BC: 0.43[0.44, 0.47] kTonnes. In all scenario years the calculated SO₂ emissions for the SECA and HFO ban scenarios are almost half of the emissions calculated for the Baseline scenario. For BC in 2020[2030, 2050] the HFO ban and SECA emissions are 8 %[9 %, 12 %] and 3 %[3%, 3 %] smaller, respectively, than the Baseline results.

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For more information, please contact Morten Winther, senior consultant at Aarhus University Departement of Environmental Science:

E-mail: mwi@envs.au.dk

Telephone: +4587158578