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No. 298: Projection of emissions. SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3, PM2,5 and soot

Nielsen, O.-K., Plejdrup, M.S., Winther, M., Nielsen, M., Hjelgaard, K., Mikkelsen, M.H., Albrektsen, R. & Thomsen, M. 2018. Fremskrivning af emissioner. SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3, PM2,5 og sod. Aarhus Universitet, DCE – Nationalt Center for Miljø og Energi, 75 s. - Videnskabelig rapport nr. 298. http://dce2.au.dk/pub/SR298.pdf

Summary

In this project, two projections have been made, as well as a number of scenario calculations. Firstly, a basic projection (WM - with measures projection) has been made, which uses the Energy Agency's basic projection and secondly a WAM (with additional measures) projection has been made, which is an alternative energy scenario, where the same “frozen policy” approach has not been applied, as in the basic projection.

For particulate matter (PM2.5) and ammonia (NH3), emission, impacts are calculated on a number of scenarios. The scenarios for particles have been developed by NIRAS, and the NH3 scenarios were developed by the University of Copenhagen. DCE has calculated the emission impact of these scenarios.

Denmark is subject to a number of obligations with regard to inventory and reporting of air pollution. The main obligations derive from the United Nations Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) and the EU NECD Directive. NECD has set the emission reduction obligations for sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-volatile organic compounds than methane (NMVOC), NH3 and PM2.5 for 2020 and 2030. The reduction obligation for 2020 is the same as under CLRTAP. The table below shows the current commitments, including the reduction commitments for 2020 and 2030 converted into an “emissions ceiling”.

Emissions of SO2, NOx and NMVOC projected to 2020 are considered to be below the reduction target. NOx and NMVOC are projected to be below the reduction target for 2030. For SO2, the 2030 emission is below the reduction target in the WAM projection.

The results for the individual substances are shown in the tables below, together with a calculated reduction target for 2020 and 2030. The reduction target is calculated based on the 2005 emissions as reported to the EU and UN dated 15 February 2018, combined with the percentage reduction targets specified in the NEC Directive.

In both projections, the 2020 SO2 emissions are estimated to be well below the reduction target. Even with the uncertainties associated with a projection, it is highly probable that the 2020 target will be met. For 2030, the SO2 emission in the WM projection is slightly above the reduction target, while in the WAM projection, it is just below the reduction target. With the uncertainties in the projection, it is not possible to conclude with any certainty that the target will be met.

In both the WM and WAM projections, the NOx emission is projected to be below the reduction target for both 2020 and 2030. There are uncertainties associated with the projection, especially for road transport, but for the WAM scenario, it is estimated that the reduction target is very likely to be met.

The projected emissions for both 2020 and 2030 are significantly below the reduction target in both the WM and WAM projections. It is likely that the reduction targets in 2020 and 2030 will be achieved.

In both scenarios (WM and WAM), the projected NH3 emission is significantly above the reduction targets for 2020 and 2030. There are six scenarios for agriculture, which are described in more detail in Chapter 4. For 2020, the effect of the different scenarios fluctuates between no effect and up to 1,300 tonnes of NH3, while the effect in 2030 varies between 900-3300 tonnes of NH3. The largest effect is achieved for scenario 6, which includes an impact analysis of a retention of the livestock production at the current level, corresponding to the period 2014-2016. The vast majority of the emissions are linked to the livestock production, and therefore, changes that are directly related to the livestock production, will have a relatively large impact.

The projected PM2.5 emission is significantly above the reduction targets for 2020 and 2030 in both the WM and WAM scenarios. There are five scenarios, which are described in more detail in Chapter 4. The three scenarios concern wood-burning stoves, while the last two concern non-road machines. The effect of the different scenarios fluctuates between 43 and 2456 tonnes PM2.5 in 2020. The biggest effect in 2020 is achieved for scenario 2, which concerns tax on the use of wood burning stoves. The biggest effect of a gradual phase-out of wood-burning stoves is seen in 2030, as described in scenario 1.