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No. 7: Projection of SO2, NOx, NH3 and particle emissions - 2010-2030

Nielsen, O.-K., Plejdrup, M., Winther, M., Mikkelsen, M.H., Albrektsen, R., Nielsen, M., Fauser, P., Hoffmann, L., Hjelgaard, K. & Gyldenkærne, S. 2012. Projection of SO2, NOx, NH3 and particle emissions - 2010-2030. Aarhus University, DCE – Danish Centre for Environment and Energy, 122 pp. Technical Report from DCE – Danish Centre for Environment and Energy No. 7. www.dmu.dk/Pub/TR7.pdf

 

Summary

Introduction

This report contains a description of the models and background data used for projection of the pollutants SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3, TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 for Denmark. The emissions are projected to 2030 using basic scenarios which include the estimated effects on emissions of policies and measures implemented until April 2011 (‘with measures’ projections). Official Danish forecasts, e.g. the official forecast from the Danish Energy Agency, are used to provide activity rates in the models for those sectors for which these forecasts are available. The emission factors refer to international guidelines or are country-specific, referring to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emissions data from a considerable number of plants in Denmark. The projection models are based on the same structure and methodology as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.

In Europe, regional air pollution is regulated by a number of protocols under the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). The objectives of the Gothenburg Protocol are to control and reduce the emissions of SO2, NOX, NMVOC and NH3. Contrary to the earlier protocols the parties to this protocol are not obliged to comply with certain reduction percentages set in relation to a baseline year. Instead emission ceilings have been based on knowledge of critical loads and environmental impact on ecosystems within the geographical area of Europe. Table 1 shows the emission ceilings for Denmark in 2010. The same emission ceilings are included in the EU directive: Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2001 on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants (the NEC directive).

Table 1   Emission ceilings for Denmark in 2010 (tonnes).

Pollutants

SO2

NOX

NMVOC*

NH3*

Emission ceilings

55,000

127,000

85,000

69,000

* The NH3 emission ceiling excludes the emission from straw treatment and growing crops; the NMVOC emission ceiling excludes the emission from growing crops.

Annual emissions are available for the years until 2009, while the presented emissions for 2010 are projections. As a consequence, the 2010 emissions are preliminary and are therefore not decisive as to whether Denmark fulfils its obligations with regards to the NEC Directive.

Pollutant summary

The historical emissions in the latest historical year, 2009, are shown in Table 2 together with the projected emissions for 2020 and 2030. The results of the projection indicate, that emissions of SO2, NOx, NMVOC and particulate matter decrease from the latest historical inventory year (2009) to the projection year 2020. From 2020 to 2030 the projection indicates a further decrease of emissions of the same pollutants, except SO2, which is expected to show a slight increase.

 Table 2   Historical emissions for 2009 and projected emissions for 2020 and 2030.

Pollutant

2009

2020

2030

SO2, tonnes

14 791

15 270

15 773

NOx, tonnes

131 784

84 571

70 323

NMVOC, tonnes *

93 456

69 989

64 231

NH3, tonnes *

71 350

57 781

55 092

TSP, tonnes

39 179

30 860

28 591

PM10, tonnes

30 645

22 682

19 970

PM2.5, tonnes

24 451

16 892

13 853

* The NH3 emissions are without emission from straw treatment and growing crops and the NMVOC emissions are excluding emission from growing crops according to the definitions in the NEC Directive.

 Nitrogen oxides, NOX

The largest sources are road transport, other mobile sources, and energy industries, accounting for 35 %, 32 % and 15 % of the NOx emission in 2009, respectively.

The NOx emission in 2009 of 131.8 ktonnes was somewhat higher than the emission ceiling of 127 ktonnes.

The NOx emission is expected to decrease 36 % (47%) from 2009 to 2020 (2030). The decrease is mainly related to road transport and other mobile sources due to the introduction of stricter demands at EU level (new EURO norms).

Sulphur dioxide, SO2

The largest sources of SO2 emissions are energy industries and manufacturing industries, accounting for 31 % and 19 % respectively of the national SO2 emission in 2009.

The SO2 emission in 2009 of 14.8 ktonnes was significant below the emission ceiling of 55 ktonnes.

The SO2 emission is expected to increase 3 % (7 %) from 2009 to 2020 (2030). The emission from other mobile sources and public power is expected to show a marked decrease, while emissions from combustion in manufacturing industries and district heating plants are expected to increase.

Non methane volatile organic compounds, NMVOC

The largest sources to emissions of NMVOC are solvents and other product use followed by residential plants, road transport, extraction, storage and refining of oil and gas, and industrial processes in food and drinks production. These sources account for 29 %, 17 %, 14 %, 12 % and 10 %, respectively of the total NMVOC emission in 2009.

The NMVOC emission is expected to decrease 25 % (31 %) from 2009 to 2020 (2030). The largest decrease is expected for residential plants and solvent and other product use, but pronounced decreases are also expected for road transport, fugitive emissions from fuels and other mobile sources.

Ammonia, NH3

The predominant source of NH3 emissions is agricultural activities (96 %) and the major part comes from livestock manure.

The NH3 emission is expected to decrease 19 % (23 %) from 2009 to 2020 (2030). The major decrease is expected in relation to manure management (19 % and 21 %, respectively). The decreased emission is mainly a result of fall in emission from the animal housing and in particular from the pig housing, which is due to implementation of NH3 reducing technology.

Total suspended particulate matter, TSP

Particles are not included under the NEC directive, so no emission ceilings are established for TSP, PM10 or PM2.5. The main sources of particle emission are non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants and agriculture, accounting for 49 % and 29 %, respectively, of the total TSP emission in 2009.

The TSP emission is 2009 was 39.2 ktonnes. The emission is projected to decrease by 21 % (27 %) from 2009 to 2020 (2030). The largest decrease is expected for emissions from residential plants of 36 % and 45 % from 2009 to respectively 2020 and 2030.

Particulate matter with diameter less than 10 µm - PM10

The main sources of the PM10 emission are non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants, and agriculture. In 2009 these sources accounted for 58 % and 19 %, respectively.

The emission projection estimates the PM10 emission to decrease by 26 % (35 %) from 2009 to 2020 (2030). The main decrease is expected for residential plants, but the PM10 emissions from road transport and other mobile sources are expected to decrease in the projection period as well.

Particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm - PM2.5

The single major source of the PM2.5 emission is non-industrial combustion, mainly wood combustion in residential plants, which accounted for 71 % of the national PM2.5 emission in 2009. Other important sources are road transport, other mobile sources and agriculture with 10 %, 9 % and 5 %, respectively

The PM2.5 emission is expected to decrease by 31 % (43 %) from 2009 to 2020 (2030) mainly due to decreasing emission from residential plants caused by the introduction of new technologies with lower emissions and other mobile sources. The emission from agriculture is expected to increase slightly (16 % and 17 % from 2009 to 2020 and 2030, respectively).

Key uncertainties and future challenges

In a projection the activity data are naturally associated with some uncertainty. To the extent possible, this projection has been based on official projections, e.g. the fuel consumption projection made by the Danish Energy Agency.

Generally, the most uncertain pollutant is particulate matter. There are still several sources of PM that is not included in the emission inventory and therefore also not part of the projection. For the other pollutants the largest uncertainty relates to NMVOC, due to the wide variety of sources and the larger uncertainties associated with e.g. solvent use. Other uncertainties include emission factors for biomass fired plants, which are not subject to continuous monitoring. The projected increased use of biomass underlines the importance of establishing better emission factors for these installations.